Here's the latest news and commentary on business news, market trends, stocks, investment opportunities, and precious metals markets. We also cover hedging, derivatives and obscura. Most of these articles come from the vexing “tangible-heavy” perspective of SurvivalBlog founder and editor, JWR. Today we look at China's unsustainable debt bubble. (See Economics and Finance section.)
Precious metals:
Needless to say, expect a big breakout in gold, silver and platinum prices if Russia completely invades Ukraine. Stack 'em deep and stack 'em early. Commerzbank seems to agree.
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Neither inflation nor the Fed moves gold.
Economy & Finance:
The implosion of mainland China's debt bubble now seems well underway. The collapse of Evergrande and other overleveraged construction companies is in full swing. This implosion will most likely spread to many other sectors of the Chinese economy.. The next sectors to fail? It will most likely be the high-speed rail lines, then the car manufacturers, and perhaps their high-tech sector. The debt-to-GDP ratio in China is seriously out of whack – somewhere around 270%. And the size of the Chinese bond market is second only to that of the United States. Much of China's debt was due to the Pie in the Sky boondoggles. This level of bad investment needs to be “unwound” before their economy can resume real progress.
In the 19th century and early 20th century, China had a problem with the global opium trade. But now, at the beginning of the 21st century, they have a problem with the global OPM market. What is OPM? Other people's money (OPM). Debt. There is simply too much debt. China has created a totally unsustainable debt bubble. Many of the underlying “assets” of these loans are not salable. They are ghost apartment complexes and entire ghost towns. Many of these buildings are just empty shells of apartment and office buildings that were never completed. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is fully complicit with the creation of the debt bubble.
Again, what happened to Evergrande and Kaisa was just the beginning – just a precursor to a monumental debt crisis that could very quickly become contagious globally. Pay attention.
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Markets are a 'sea of red' amid 'the total collapse of everything tech and pandemic winners'.
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Treasury yields rise after Jamie Dimon predicted 'six or seven' rate hikes in 2022.
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Goldman Plunges After Trading Earnings Miss.
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Visualize the $94 trillion global economy in a single chart.
Amenities:
HL sent us this: The orange harvest is expected to be the smallest since World War II, leading to a spike in OJ prices.
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Oil Price News reports: In Rare Move, China discloses oil imports from Iran.
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Oil hits a 7-year high as Goldman sees Brent hitting $105 in 2023.
Forex & Crypto:
Peru: The Central Bank will launch a CBDC.
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The rout of risky assets continues.
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Bank of Russia calls for a ban on crypto mining and trading.
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Bitcoin breaks $37, why a downtrend to $000 is likely.
Tangible investments:
A Glock of another color. I've mentioned this gun investing angle before in SurvivalBlog, but thought I'd expand on it a bit: find low population factory-finished guns in unusual colors, then stack them in safe new (NIB) or new in box (LNIB), as investments. Shown is one with a factory green frame. Be aware that most black Glock models are mass-produced and are essentially just commodity items. Therefore, they generally only correspond to the currency inflation rate. These are just a few odd Glock variants that were made in small numbers that are considered true investment guns. And among these, only those that are either NIB or LNIB will be sought after by collectors.
Before purchasing a colored Glock, take note of the difference between factory finishes and aftermarket finishes. The former will gain in value, while the latter will not. Also note that all Gen 5 Glock pistols can still be thrown in colour in large numbers, if there is sufficient market demand. But there will be No more Gen 3 Glocks – the weird variants of Gen 3 NIB models are where you should probably start looking.
A few of the special finishes were factory made, but only distributed by a single distributor, such as Lipsey. The last finish I saw is this: the new Glock G43X 9mm compact pistol, "Rose Gold" color. (On the Palmetto State Armory site, search for "PX4350204".) Not sure if this is a factory or aftermarket finish.
Sure, a nicely colored gun won't make you shoot better, but one day your grandkids might thank you for your investment acumen.
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Rolex, Patek, Audemars Piguet; Kevin O'Leary's “great investment” watch picks.
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A real estate expert warns of a commercial "bloodbath".
Conditions:
SurvivalBlog and its editors are not investment advisers or paid advisers. Please see our Terms page for our detailed disclaimers.
Topical tips:
Please send your saving and investing tips to JWR. (Either by email or via our contact form.) These are often particularly relevant because they come from people who closely monitor specific markets. If you spot any news that SurvivalBlog readers might be interested in, please submit. And it is not necessary alone on commodities and precious metals. Thank you!